An investigation into stochastic claims reserving models and the chain-ladder technique

نویسنده

  • R. J. Verrall
چکیده

This paper considers a range of stochastic models which give the same reserve estimates as the chain-ladder technique. The relationship between the models described by Renshaw and Verrall (Renshaw, A.E., Verrall, R.J., 1998. British Actuarial Journal 4, 903–923) and Mack (Mack, T., 1993. ASTIN Bulletin 23, 213–225) is explored in more detail than previously. Several new models are suggested and some new ways to allow for negative incremental claims for the chain-ladder technique and other claims reserving methods are put forward. ©2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Accounting Year Effects Modelling in the Stochastic Chain Ladder Reserving Method

In almost all stochastic claims reserving models one assumes that accident years are independent. In practice this assumption is violated most of the time. Typical examples are claims inflation and accounting year effects which influence all accident years simultaneously. We study a Bayesian chain ladder model that allows for accounting (calendar) year effects modelling. A case study on a gener...

متن کامل

Modified Munich Chain-Ladder Method

The Munich chain-ladder method for claims reserving was introduced by Quarg and Mack on an axiomatic basis. We analyze these axioms, and we define a modified Munich chain-ladder method which is based on an explicit stochastic model. This stochastic model then allows us to consider claims prediction and prediction uncertainty for the Munich chain-ladder method in a consistent way.

متن کامل

Macro vs. Micro Methods in Non-Life Claims Reserving (an Econometric Perspective)

1.1. Macro and Micro Methods. For more than a century, actuaries have been using run-off triangles to project future payments, in nonlife insurance. In the 30’s, [1] formalized this technique that originated the popular chain ladder estimate. In the 90’s, [2] proved that the chain ladder estimate can be motivated by a simple stochastic model, and later on [3] provided a comprehensive overview o...

متن کامل

Obtaining Predictive Distributions for Reserves Which Incorporate Expert Opinion

This paper shows how expert opinion can be inserted into a stochastic framework for claims reserving. The reserving methods used are the chain-ladder technique and Bornhuetter-Ferguson, and the stochastic framework follows England and Verrall (2062). Although stochastic models have been studied, there are 2 main obstacles to their more frequent use in practice: ease of implementation and adapta...

متن کامل

Stochastic Claims Reserving in General Insurance

This paper considers a wide range of stochastic reserving models for use in general insurance, beginning with stochastic models which reproduce the traditional chain-ladder reserve estimates. The models are extended to consider parametric curves and smoothing models for the shape of the development run-off, which allow extrapolation for the estimation of tail factors. The Bornhuetter-Ferguson t...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2000